经济海啸欲来袭 澳洲房产HOLD不住

美国经济学家德恩特（Harry Dent）预言，由于经济大海啸即将重磅来袭，澳人在买房一事上将更加有心无力。
　　周日抵达澳洲的德恩特预言，全球经济陷入二次衰退为期不远了，就在明年年初或年中。二次衰退将以欧洲为据点，然后向美国、中国及澳洲蔓延。
　　他对AAP说，“澳洲最有可能躲过这一劫，但是我们认为如同2008年的全球金融危机一样，澳洲幸免不了。”
　　他表示，经济二次衰退中首当其冲的是房地产。“悉尼、东京、迈阿密的市民说，‘房价是不会降的，我们的城市这么棒，大家都想搬进来，已经没有多余的土地可以来建房子了。’而我想说的是，恰恰是这样的地方才会产生泡沫。除去香港和上海，澳洲是全球房价最贵的。”
　　德恩特称，澳洲的房价将跌回90年代末或者2000年初的水平。驱使产生这一变化的是人口因素，尤其是婴儿潮一代人的花销。20年前我们就预测到美国可能出现经济衰退。“2007年，婴儿潮出生的人将支付他们人生中最高的一笔消费——买房。但是，买完房后，为了能都安度晚年他们就得开始存钱了。然后就是我们将要看到的状况了。”

没看懂，是降还是升？有reference 吗？

可不能降啊

Property `tsunami' to hit Australian real estate
Article | AAP

Australia's love affair with property is about to turn sour as an "economic tsunami'' looks set to hit world markets, American economic forecaster Harry Dent says.

Mr Dent, who arrived in Australia today, predicts the world will experience a second, deeper downturn, which will arrive between the beginning and the middle of next year.

Starting in Europe, the downturn will spread to the US, China and eventually Australia, he said.

"Australia is probably the best place in the world to survive this, but we do think Australia will not escape as well as it did from the last crisis (in 2008),'' Mr Dent said.

At the centre of the coming debt crisis is real estate, the forecaster says.

"People in places like Sydney or Tokyo or Miami say, 'Hey, real estate can never go down here, we're a great place, everyone wants to move here, there's not much land for development', and what I say is that is exactly the kind of place that bubbles,'' Mr Dent said.

"Outside Hong Kong and Shanghai, Australia is the most expensive real estate market in the world compared to income.''

Mr Dent said Australia's house prices would return to late 1990s or early 2000 levels.

Driving all these changes is simple demographics, specifically the peak of the baby boomers' spending, Mr Dent said.

"We predicted this (current) downturn in the US 20 years ago,'' he said.

"We said that in 2007 the peak number of baby boomers will reach their peak spending. They would have bought all their homes and then they will start saving for retirement ... and that you are going to see this downturn.''

The drop-off in spending will affect everyone, even mighty China, Mr Dent said.

To survive the incoming "economic tsunami'', Mr Dent said investors should sell their excess real estate and buy up assets in US dollars.

"Gold and silver are going to crash, they're a bubble,'' he said.

"Once we write down all these crazy debts, we are going to destroy a lot of dollars that were created in the boom and that makes the (US) dollar a lot more valuable.''

Mr Dent is in Australia to promote his book, The Great Crash Ahead - How to Prosper in the Debt Crisis of 2010-2012, and will be speaking at the Secure the Future conference in Sydney and Brisbane in October.


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* Copyright Australian Associated Press