AN EXTRA 40,000 jobs were created in September against a prediction of a loss of 10,000 positions, the latest government data shows.
The jobless rate has fallen to 5.7 per cent versus a market expectation it would increase to six per cent.
The strong jobless figures were the latest sign that the Australian economy was recovering and will add further pressure on the Reserve Bank to increase rates again before Christmas.
Full-time employment rose by 35,400 to 7.59 million in the month and part-time employment was up by 5200 to 3.216 million, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed.
The participation rate in September was 65.2 per cent, compared with 65.1 per cent in August.
Bad week for predictions
The jobless data caps off a bad week for economists and their predictions.
First it was "unexpected" decision by the Reserve Bank to increase interest rates to 3.25 per cent on Tuesday.
Most economists, with notable exceptions including Rory Robertson from Macquarie, had forecast that the rate would remain unchanged.
Instead the Reserve Bank increased its rate for the first time since March 2008.
Then today's surprisingly positive job figures came out.
The market had forecast that the unemployment rate would reach six per cent, a level not seen in more than six years.
The market had also forecast for total employment to to have declined by 10,000 in September.
The unemployment rate had remained steady at 5.8 per cent since June with a drop in the participation rate off-setting an increase in the number of people looking for work.
As Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens told a a parliamentary committee last month, there is a "whole mosaic" of information to process when "trying to calibrate our interest rate".
Mr Robertson was one of the few to read that mosaic correctly.
Mr Stevens and his board, will find today's result "justifies the pre-emptive move" they made on Tuesday, said TD Securities senior strategist Annette Beacher.
Underlying strength in the economy
"The RBA would not have had access to this report before it made the decision to go 'early'," Ms Beacher said.
She said that TD Securities had now lifted their year-end Reserve Bank cash rate target to 3.5 per cent and their mid-2010 target to four percent.
RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong said the better-than-expected report was a sign of underlying strength in the Australian economy.
"It was very strong across the board, with employment surging in September, and well above consensus," she said.
The ABS data also reflected a departure from previous labour force reports indicating more people were moving to part time work instead of losing their jobs, Ms Ong said.
"It's been driven by an increase in fulltime jobs and that's significant," she said.
IG Markets economist Ben Potter said the RBA could easily justify its rates move on Tuesday.
"It's pretty obvious the RBA had an advanced read on today's employment numbers and can now more easily justify the reason they pulled the rates trigger,'' he said in a research note.
"The creation of 40,000 jobs against forecast losses of 10,000, and the unemployment rate falling to 5.7 per cent would certainly seem to suggest we have seen peak unemployment, particularly given the positive reads from recent forward looking indicators."
The unemployment rate was unlikely to reach the Federal Government's forecast peak of 8.5 per cent, National Australia Bank senior economist David de Garis said.
"Unemployment might climb above six per cent but it does not look like it will go far above six per cent at this stage," he said.
http://www.news.com.au/business/ ... 6182047-462,00.html, |
微信扫一扫
提升卡
置顶卡
变色卡
抢沙发
